HOW TO: Track Trends

Trend tracking is not about looking into a crystal ball and divining the future, rather an observation of the here and now and what the impact of the here and now will have on the future.

The first time a real estate agent told me that banks were giving adjustable rate mortgages with nothing down, allowing 50% of income to go to principle and interest was in 2005, I knew that in 2008 there would be lots of foreclosures. (I am sure that this had been going on even before 2005 but that was the first time that I paid attention - I didn't even know that incomes were not being verified.) Where were all of our astute economists who had the true inside information and whose job it was to keep our economy sound?

Tracking and analyzing trends requires both an open-mind and a keen sense of awareness of your surroundings at all times. Because I am involved with construction materials, the mortgage information held relevance to me, so I processed the information immediately. As a consultant, I made the recommendation that my clients expand their product planning and marketing efforts beyond the residential market. As a consultant, I can only inform decisions, the decisions are the clients to make, and their economists never even sounded the alarm. (The few who did were ignored in the press and considered nervous nellies.)

Trend Watching.Com offers a thorough review of the trend-tracking process as well as trends that they observe. Trend tracking may not be a formal part of your job requirement, but every marketer needs a rudimentary understanding of the process to know whose advice to take. Your own observational skills are still required; the internet should not be viewed as a short cut, but as another tool in the process.