At a rapid pace, it seems.
An interesting animated info-graphic shows the rapid rise and fall of CD sales over the last 30 years. No matter what industry you are in, technology affects your future, and time is of the essence like never before.
In hindsight, it is all too easy to see the trajectory of the music industry, but in looking into the future - not so much. If even pros professed not to see the results of liar balloon mortgages,(Although, I find that hard to believe) it is hard not be be caught up in the pleasant delusions of those upward trajectories even in the face of much contradictory evidence.
As a decision maker, it is important to keep constantly reality testing scenarios in planning sessions.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Thursday, May 19, 2011
The Soul of Retail
I've just returned from my annual trek to ICFF, (International Contemporary Furniture Fair) my overriding thought about it all is: despite the niche, niche world we live in, building brand is essential. As usual, ambling the streets of New York is so much more instructive of the trends - trends definitely come from the streets, retail is the latest instructor these days.
From the windows at Barney's and Bergdorf's that entice us to go to the Metropolitan Museum and see the Alexander McQueen show to Ralph Lauren's flagship stores on Madison Avenue, we see what is happening in the world. It is the trade shows that are fantasies today, and retail the reality. Most recently, trends came from the streets, before that from the luxury markets, today the trends are firmly in the hands of the trend-forward retailers, they have the megaphones and are using them well - they have it all - storefronts, catalogs and online presence. The biggest coupe of all, came to someone who hardly needed it, a full hour on the last week of Oprah went to Ralph Lauren. If you have anything to do with retail furnishings and didn't see this show, beg, borrow or steal a copy of this show. It is a textbook on what makes for success in this business!
In this recent trip to New York, and the aisle after aisle of soullessness that is the contemporary design world, I fully understand the success of the Ralph Lauren brand and even the dark underworld appeal of Alexander McQueen. The recent royal wedding garb aside, these two represent the flip sides of the human soul - McQueen is all uncomfortable darkness, while Lauren with this season's laces and sheer fabrics in natural materials is about the light. In our hyper-competitive world, it is possible for everyone to get the shape, line, color and texture of products relatively right. What these two gentlemen have done is superimpose their products with stories that resonate. Lauren entices us with the beauty of the familiar and comfortable, while McQueen shows us things that we think we have never even imagined as something that we would wear near our bodies - hair, feathers, horns, branches of trees; yet we do wear furs, wool, leather and sleep with feathers in our down comforters.
These men tell mythic stories that make us pay attention and that is ultimately their appeal. My bet is that the story of the comfortably familiar lightness will win, but the dark side, as always, is tempting and is influential.
The familiar: Natural fibers, leather, nostalgia and escaping to a world we create at home is the story that Ralph Lauren tells in his current home fashions.
Alexander McQueen in tartan plaid looks down on the netherworld he created in the windows of Bergdorf-Goodman.
High-end retail connects to the cultural landscape by promoting the Metropolitan's McQueen show.
Although lighter and brighter, McQueen's influence can be seen in the spring fashions in the windows of Ralph Lauren's flagship store with the Rhinelander mansion's reflection.
The streets of New York were jam-packed and as many people as were fascinated by these windows, and for those who think the middle has disappeared, ultimately the biggest crowds at retail were lined up outside the Aberchrombie and Fitch store waiting patiently for the privilege of going inside. The appeal of a beautiful human body in both image and reality trumps all. Creating a brand is all but essential in today's marketplace, and these are just a few of the success stories - examples of the soul that today is the essential component of brand and that many of the start-ups in both fashion and home furnishings would be smart to use as a how-to lesson.
From the windows at Barney's and Bergdorf's that entice us to go to the Metropolitan Museum and see the Alexander McQueen show to Ralph Lauren's flagship stores on Madison Avenue, we see what is happening in the world. It is the trade shows that are fantasies today, and retail the reality. Most recently, trends came from the streets, before that from the luxury markets, today the trends are firmly in the hands of the trend-forward retailers, they have the megaphones and are using them well - they have it all - storefronts, catalogs and online presence. The biggest coupe of all, came to someone who hardly needed it, a full hour on the last week of Oprah went to Ralph Lauren. If you have anything to do with retail furnishings and didn't see this show, beg, borrow or steal a copy of this show. It is a textbook on what makes for success in this business!
In this recent trip to New York, and the aisle after aisle of soullessness that is the contemporary design world, I fully understand the success of the Ralph Lauren brand and even the dark underworld appeal of Alexander McQueen. The recent royal wedding garb aside, these two represent the flip sides of the human soul - McQueen is all uncomfortable darkness, while Lauren with this season's laces and sheer fabrics in natural materials is about the light. In our hyper-competitive world, it is possible for everyone to get the shape, line, color and texture of products relatively right. What these two gentlemen have done is superimpose their products with stories that resonate. Lauren entices us with the beauty of the familiar and comfortable, while McQueen shows us things that we think we have never even imagined as something that we would wear near our bodies - hair, feathers, horns, branches of trees; yet we do wear furs, wool, leather and sleep with feathers in our down comforters.
These men tell mythic stories that make us pay attention and that is ultimately their appeal. My bet is that the story of the comfortably familiar lightness will win, but the dark side, as always, is tempting and is influential.
The familiar: Natural fibers, leather, nostalgia and escaping to a world we create at home is the story that Ralph Lauren tells in his current home fashions.
Alexander McQueen in tartan plaid looks down on the netherworld he created in the windows of Bergdorf-Goodman.
High-end retail connects to the cultural landscape by promoting the Metropolitan's McQueen show.
Although lighter and brighter, McQueen's influence can be seen in the spring fashions in the windows of Ralph Lauren's flagship store with the Rhinelander mansion's reflection.
The streets of New York were jam-packed and as many people as were fascinated by these windows, and for those who think the middle has disappeared, ultimately the biggest crowds at retail were lined up outside the Aberchrombie and Fitch store waiting patiently for the privilege of going inside. The appeal of a beautiful human body in both image and reality trumps all. Creating a brand is all but essential in today's marketplace, and these are just a few of the success stories - examples of the soul that today is the essential component of brand and that many of the start-ups in both fashion and home furnishings would be smart to use as a how-to lesson.Friday, January 21, 2011
Revolution or Evolution in the New Year?
Trends often change so subtly, as to be barely perceptible. Much has changed in the global culture in the past year, and as I sit inside during yet another snowstorm, I started asking myself - have last years ideas evolved enough at this point to change direction? I reviewed what I had written as important parts of the ideas inherent in hyper-authenticity and found them to be viable into the new year:- True to Origins and Self
- True to Culture
- True to Form
- Larger than Life
- Made by Hand
- Sustainable
- Raw and unaltered
- Reclaimed, Recycled
Fractals in the design world
Surface detail from subBlue on Vimeo.
Another followup to the "Geometric" trend in my 2010 report - the explosion of fractals in art and design. This is a fantastic video, even showing some softened edges - not as harsh and edgy as all the straight edges that we have seen up until now. The scientist/designer,Tom Beddard's website promises to offer software to create your own fractal designs soon.Thursday, January 20, 2011
Emotional Marketing
Call it marketing, call it manipulation . . . as we learn more about the human brain - we also learn more about how we think and make decisions - be they buying, political, choice of friends or mates. Emotional marketing is being used effectively everyday in marketing. This article on the "bigthink" website looks at the process and shows some effective examples.
Has design overplayed its Hand?
As a design professional, I have always believed inherently that beauty and thereby good design enhance our quality of life. A recent New York Times article led me to seriously question my bias, as my mother lingers with final stage dementia in an assisted living facility with cloth tablecloths and napkins and constantly changing appropriately seasonal decorative accessories.
The article describes a New York facility called Beatitudes this way: "The facility itself is institutional-looking, dowdy and “extremely outdated,” Ms. Mullan said. “It’s ugly,” said Jan Dougherty, director of family and community services at Banner Alzheimer’s Institute in Phoenix. But “they’re probably doing some of the best work.” " They use common sense and the human touch to make their patients lives more bearable. That is something that "design" simply does not deliver on its own.
(For more on common sense watch Barry Schwartz's Ted talk on Practical Wisdom. He has moved on from observing the consumer in the "Paradox of Choice" to observing the current human condition.)
The backlash to the emphasis on "design" seems to have begun in a subtle way. An article entitled "De-emphasizing Design" on a hotel management website recommends a holistic approach to creating an environment rather than an emphasis on elaborate design - basically postulating that you can't put all your eggs in the "design" basket.
From the article: ". . . according to Howard Wolff, SVP with design firm WATG, people are moving past wanting things and instead crave the more tangible . . . moving from extravagance to experience, from conspicuous to conscientious consumption, from airs to authenticity, from could be anywhere to you are here, from green is good to green is gold and from trendy to timeless - waste not want not."
The article describes a New York facility called Beatitudes this way: "The facility itself is institutional-looking, dowdy and “extremely outdated,” Ms. Mullan said. “It’s ugly,” said Jan Dougherty, director of family and community services at Banner Alzheimer’s Institute in Phoenix. But “they’re probably doing some of the best work.” " They use common sense and the human touch to make their patients lives more bearable. That is something that "design" simply does not deliver on its own.
(For more on common sense watch Barry Schwartz's Ted talk on Practical Wisdom. He has moved on from observing the consumer in the "Paradox of Choice" to observing the current human condition.)
The backlash to the emphasis on "design" seems to have begun in a subtle way. An article entitled "De-emphasizing Design" on a hotel management website recommends a holistic approach to creating an environment rather than an emphasis on elaborate design - basically postulating that you can't put all your eggs in the "design" basket.
From the article: ". . . according to Howard Wolff, SVP with design firm WATG, people are moving past wanting things and instead crave the more tangible . . . moving from extravagance to experience, from conspicuous to conscientious consumption, from airs to authenticity, from could be anywhere to you are here, from green is good to green is gold and from trendy to timeless - waste not want not."
New Inspiration/Mosaics
The ancient domesticity of the Mediterranean basin has long fascinated me, what we learn about the thousands of year old living arrangements continues to inform our styles from Moshe Safdie's early condos which bring to mind hilltowns to the mosaics of Bisazza and Sicis. With each new find and subsequent exposure of the past, a new generation of companies and stylists again become inspired.The Metropolitan Museum currently has a show unveiling a trove of mosaics accidently discovered during road constuction near Tel Aviv in 1996. It will be interesting to watch how these detailed images will influence the new. (If you can't get to the show in time, read about it here.)
Aahh! Nostalgia
In 2010, as we moved into a new decade last year, I entitled my trend report "Memory Matters." The early reports this year are that memory matters more with every passing day. The New York Times Thursday home section, which has a particularly strong sense of the direction featured a Brooklyn store called Brook Farm General Store, a nostalgic home goods survival guide to today's 24/7 stressed out world.As an antidote to minimalism the NY Times also features woven goods - the warm feel of an object matters as much as the look in creating a comfortable home environment. Judging by the antique rag rug pillows, another version of nostalgia reigns at John Derian Company, from one turn-of-the- century to another - despite today's overly connected world - many of us crave the comforts of a home connected to the past.
(In the interest of full disclosure, I admit to having a house full of rag rugs.)
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