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The previous blog entry is interesting from a sustainability perspective - but at the end of the day, we are not Europe...and the American consumer will not consume like their European brothers and sisters.
One of the conversation starters on the Harvard Business blogs reminds us of this, it is entitled: Why American Consumers Will Spend Lavishly Again. The author is a social anthropologist who has come to understand the American consumer from that perspective. He says that our things define us, but more importantly define what we want to become. He is quite sanguine about the fact that consumption will return and uses the recent history of remodeling as an example. From an anthropological perspective, our constant remodeling is hardly irrational consumption, but actually has a deeper, cultural motive. "Susan (his composite consumer in speaking of an expensive great room remodel) is fashioning her social life. To be sure, there is status seeking here. But there is also something richer and more cultural, as Susan works out new ideas of the "host," "guest" and "entertainment.' "
If this article is correct, it speaks to the continued importance of keeping up with fashion trends in building materials, as when the pent-up demand for remodeling returns, consumers will not be interested in yesterday's fashions. The American consumer looks towards the future, even if that future means looking for new, yet more traditional looks because the resale value of a home is not rising as rapidly as it did during the go-go years.
Long before sustainability was on the tip of everyone's tongue, Manufactum opened stores in Germany with that concept in mind from their very beginnings more than 20 years ago. A German store for home products that is a cross between IKEA and Conran's, they started out immediately with a sustainability mission.
Products were to be selected based on three simple criteria:
- Produced through traditional methods, are reliable and easy to use.
- Materials are carefully selected and are attractive.
- Made of traditional materials (wood, metal, glass), respect the environment and can be repaired.
The title says it all, and Supply House Times gives us the actual statistics in an article by that name. I had no idea, judging by the state of the tile industry, that housing starts were at an all-time high in 1977-78 the year I came into the industry and they plummeted to less than half of that in the first three years I sold tile. Seeing today's downturn through a prism of experience and a product development bias, I can't imagine how I kept growing my territory during in that climate.
Being young and green, I knew that the new computer inventory control system the company had purchased from IBM was problematic and those of us in the field spend untold amounts of energy circumventing it. Only in hindsight can I see why more was not done to keep the product relevant - given the statistics. The company was in hunkering down mode, just as I see happening in many companies today.
The company survived that downturn through the efforts of a commissioned sales force, but now I can see how the many seeds that had been planted in the previous downturn lead to the demise of the company in the following housing downturn, and how the company all but put out directional signs for the competition.
This weeks Fortune has an article entitled "Calculated Innovation" that speaks to the hi-tech industry, but applies to every company affected by the current downturn that wants to set themselves apart from their competitors for future growth.
"Economic indicators suggest that we are slowly pulling out of this global economic downturn. Despite the uncertainties ahead, this is the optimal time to think about innovation in a different light: what new groundbreaking product or service would truly resonate with your customers? It's probably something they can't articulate themselves. But it's worthwhile to take the time to discern what motivates your customers and how you could meet a need they don't even realize they have... we call this calculated innovation."Focus groups can't have the answers, there is no question that it will take hard work for those who step up to the plate.
As a trend analyst, I thrive on discovering all the new influences that affect building materials - but there is a ying to every yang and one of the most important things to remember when specifying building materials is the old Bauhaus saying "Form follows function." It is more than a figure of speech, and there are some times that it is more important to specify the correct material than the latest on-trend look.
I was at MASS General Hospital today, and had to look up exactly when a particular building was built because the rest room looked like it could have been installed yesterday. Yes, that is a product of excellent maintenance, but what is most important is that the products specified could be maintained. It turns out the building was built in 1981, and I knew by the black, gray and white that it was probably the eighties, although I didn't remember the specification coming across my desk, although I am sure that it did. I can date any installation from the last 50 years within three years, because of material, color and wear and tear. This installation was timeless, classic in color and material choice and impecibly maintained.
My pet peeves all apply to public spaces, as I feel that anyone can put anything in their home that their heart desires. My job as trend analyst is to understand what those heart's desires are at any given moment in time, but public spaces are usually meant to serve a large number and a wide range of people, and IMHO shouldn't be experiments in fantasy.
The new terminal of the RDU airport that I mentioned in an earlier post, is but one of the travesties of specification that I constantly encounter. It looked a fright within weeks of opening.
Pet Peeve #1:
Floor products used on the wall: This started to happen because natural stone tiles and stone looks became so cheap and easily available. Some of the ugliest bathroom installations that I have encountered fall into this category. This is particularly oppressive when carried all the way up to the ceiling. The MGH rest room had matte 6" x 6" white matte wall tile with a double row of soft gray checkerboard - a classic and timeless look.
Pet Peeve #2
Wall products that meet the floor: There is no getting around the fact that maintenance crews will slosh dirty water around with their mops and the dirty water travels up the wall for the thickness of the mop. The room never looks clean again. The MGH restroom had a base that matched the black large particle, poured terrrazo floor. The floor looked like it had just been installed.
Pet Peeve #3
Premium countertops with poorly designed backsplashes: The MGH rest room has a porcelain handicap sink, so this was not an issue. My favorite detail is to leave the countertop set back from the wall with no backsplash - that takes care of any movement issues and nasty grout joints that constantly plague improperly installed backsplashes. If a premium material is installed, then the extra expense of a proper joint at the backsplash should be considered. If the budget does not allow this, wall hung sinks or less expensive materials that are easily replaced are a better option.
The cleanliness of a rest room speaks volumns about any facility, whether it is a hospital, restaurant, shopping venue or office building. I for one, won't go back to a restaurant with a dirty rest room. It gives me immediate insight into the kitchen. Recently I was in a brand new building in another hospital in Boston, despite the cast on my leg, I asked for the most remote rest room in the building because I refused to go in several that I looked into. A scary propostion where every fourth person leaves the hospital with some kind of infection.
In our current economic climate, it is critical to create spaces with life cycle costs in mind, and avoiding these pet peeves creates installations that are ultimately sustainable in the long run if the right material is specified. The Ceramic Tile Institute of America has an excellant article on the sustainability of ceramic tile, despite the fact that it doesn't fall into any of the new "green" categories. It is, after all, THE original sustainable building material.
High income luxury consumers appear to be returning to the marketplace, but they are decidedly different than BC. (before the crash) From an e-letter from Kitchen and Bath Pro comes this assessment: "When the recession is over, the luxury market that emerges from the downturn is going to be very different from the way it was before the current crisis, according to marketing consulting firm Unity Marketing . The new luxury consumers are thinking about the future and learning that conspicuous consumption is not the way to grow wealth, to achieve happiness or to make their lives more meaningful.
Affluent consumers are giving back and taking concrete steps to make the world a better place, rather than simply buying more stuff. The American culture overall is in transition from a consuming, more-for-me culture to one guided by principles that are giving, sharing and linked to more for everyone.
Luxury doesn't mean the same thing it once did. People with money will always want the best quality, best workmanship, best style and design, but they want the emphasis on concrete attributes and values that are measurable - the facts and figures that translate into value - not image or status. In the new normal world after the recession, luxury is turning inward. It no longer is about an outward show of status or wealth, but an inner state of being linked with personal happiness and an outstanding quality of life."
For example, you can still travel to Paris, still buy Chanel, Yves Saint Laurent and Stella McCartney and feel principled doing so. Merci, the brainchild of the childrenswear designers Bonpoint, is not your local Goodwill, but they are donating 100% of their profits to a children's charity. This suits the new luxury consumer to a tee. See some great pictures of the store on the Scout-Holiday blog
My new favorite magazine is The Atlantic; under its new ownership and editorial staff it continues to be well written and appears to me to be a voice of reason on our current global economy without the cheer leading, grandstanding or bs evident in so much of today's mainstream media.
THE FUTURE OF HOUSING STYLE
The lead-in to the article: "Houses of the Future" goes like this: "Four years after the levee failures, New Orleans is seeing an unexpected boom in architectural experimentation. Small, independent developers are succeeding in getting houses built where the government has failed. And the city's unique challenges—among them environmental impediments, an entrenched culture of leisure, and a casual acquaintance with regulation—are spurring design innovations that may redefine American architecture for a generation." The houses featured are small and functional, and my guess is that the classic Greek Revival shotgun style house will become a favorite, despite the attempt to "upgrade the taste" of the populace with modernism by the various players. The author describes 5 house in the article, so be sure to follow the link map in the article to see the designs by the well-known architects. These are the efforts to which Brad Pitt is lending his star-power.
The article notes that the classic New Orleans style (pictured above) is by the New York architect William Monaghan, who grew up in New Orleans and both understands and appreciates the vernacular architecture. Check his website Build Now for other classic New Orleans plans.
THE FUTURE OF HOUSING SIZE
The small houses featured in the article are functional and above all affordable. It was most instructive to read Witold Rybczynski's archived article from 1991 in the same publication "Living Smaller, the Advantages of a Small House". I wonder if he had any idea then of the McMansions that were to come. Recently, the Harvard Center for Housing Studies reported that new home sizes are slowly coming down in size, but it seems to me that their numbers are not yet significant.
THE FUTURE OF HOME OWNERSHIP
However, the most interesting article from March 2009 may be the most significant of all, as it relates to the future of housing - "How the Crash will Reshape America." Richard Florida discusses the winners and losers in the geographic lottery, the choices and opportunities as we reshape our economy and where we will live. The most interesting idea that he develops is his call for reducing our focus on home ownership, he sees renting as a much more flexible way to keep our economy strong and flourishing in the future. Renting will allow the population to follow opportunity much more readily than home ownership, moving forward. (In the past, when IBM stood for I've been Moved, home ownership was never a problem, because large companies simply bought up home at market value to remove any burden from their employees - times have changed.)
The concept entails sound thinking, and will have a major impact on interior finishes. We would be moving towards the European model, so industries must develop products that are movable like kitchen furniture instead of built-ins - a radical change for many material and product suppliers. There are many years to plan for this eventuality, but now is the time to plan ahead. - rather than let others countries become the winners like the Japanese automobile manufacturers became when the domestic manufacturers refused to build fuel efficient cars. (IKEA stands to become the go to cabinet manufacturer because they already know how to do this.)
We know that Washington needs more revenue, and whether and how fast this shift will happen, depends on who has the deeper pockets for lobbying to keep the tax write-offs for themselves and their customers.
It is fascinating that two stories on floating homes came across my desktop several days ago, now they are everywhere. One is a new concept for New Orleans in conjunction the "Make it Right" project which was given star power by Brad Pitt featured in Metropolis Magazine. "Unfortunately, none of the returning Lower Ninth Ward residents has so far selected Mayne’s design to live in," according to the article. It looks like a shipping container tethered to a post, no wonder no one wants it. Yes, the "powers" in all their arrogance continue to try to push their ideas down people's throats - to no avail as is often the case. Save the shipping containers for Art Basel Miami where they function well.
In Holland, where threats of flooding are more severe than even New Orleans, NL Architects have sketched out a much more intriguing design - a live-in waterlily pad called water wonen = liquid urbanism. More information is available at designboom, as the architect's website is under construction. IMHO, this exquisite shape based on nature holds more promise than floating shipping containers.
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Today, the British design and home furnishings troika of Sir Peter Osborne, Tricia Guild and William Yeoward discussed their personal connection to the Silk Road and how it has influenced their products. All three make annual pilgrimages to India both for inspiration and manufacturing. They certainly inspired the room full of designers who came to look and listen at the Boston Design Center. A historical perspective was also offered by moderator Pamela Parmal, David and Roberta Logie Curator of Textile and Fashion Art at the Museum of Fine Arts, Boston.
Know for brilliant saturated color,Tricia Guild based her first collection, created almost 40 years ago, on the recoloring of hand-blocked Indian textiles. (In the 9/11 post below you can see one of the printing blocks that I found at Brimfield.) Her showroom is a must-visit on every trip to London, one can always expect to see trends being developed there.
Although Osbourne and Little prints are softer in color, all three spoke of floral inspiration (particularly the rose) as well as the ever important paisley decorative element. Also expect to see more pomegranate designs. (Above from Osbourne & Little) The hundreds of years of continuity of these designs are comfortable and familiar, and have been a part of our design heritage since the first link was created from Asia to Europe - the Silk Road. All three designers have updated the various Asian, Indian and Middle Eastern influences to fit today's lifestyle. We never grow tired of worn classic cabbage rose patterns and embrace every new version of Silk Road interpretations that are introduced, particularly on the East Coast.
If, as they say, skirt lengths predict the economy, can the same be said for home furnishings? Red and fuzzy furniture was popular during the 70's with the "bachelor" set. Then does this crib for adults that comes with a built-in TV and champagne bucket from Hollandia International mean that our economy is due to repeat the stagnant 70's? What is most surprising is that this monstrosity is "designed" by Karim Rashid. I gave him the benefit of the doubt when I saw the flocked pink chairs at Umbra several years ago, thinking he couldn't possibly have designed them. Seriously???
The futuristic tableware by dutch designer Jochem de Wit takes inspiration from the urban environment. He believes a scratch on an object is a signal of life, not a blemish.
His gritty aesthetic of recycled glass, clay and concrete pieces evokes the raw urban environment. The aesthetic is new, while the shapes remain familiar and functional.
Committee has covered the walls of their Gallop Gallery in what they call "extreme tiling." It looks as if they cleaned out someone's warehouse, and while that is certainly better than having it go to the landfill, I just don't understand this installation as an aesthetic statement. While ceramic tile is my favorite functional finish, I suppose this falls into the category described by Ambrose Bierce as: "the art of protecting flat surfaces from the weather and exposing them to the critic."
Four, yes four of the 7 reasons "Why your Advertising isn't Working" are listed in this title. The Business Week article tells us why messages are not getting through to consumers.
Despite the downturn, and the bloated unemployment roles, some corporations still have too many managers making gratuitous decisions as make work - obviously to justify their own existence. As is typical of corporations, all the other managers fall in line and blow in each other's ears.
All that is well and good, if it makes sense for the customers in the long run. I have almost stopped going to my nearest grocery story because every time that I go in, the center aisles have been rearranged. I don't enjoy the grocery shopping process except when I am at Trader Joe's, so a trip to my Shaw's is under duress anyway, and only my way home from somewhere else.
The employees were all in agreement that the changes were gratuitous and unnecessary, the corporate management obviously didn't ask either the customer or the store employees for input. I asked to speak to the manager to voice my concern, and a pathetic indignant soul stood in front of me and justified it all instead of politely taking note of a customer's concern. Terrible business relations! Bad for the bottom line and it always shows there. I'm thinkin' there should be more concern for the customer rather than attitude during times like these.
CVS and Trader Joe's offer both an excellent shopping experience and treat their customers with respect and it is no surprise that their bottom lines reflect this.
When do you know there are too many managers? Sometimes it makes sense to "rearrange the deck chairs" - if things are looking worn, outdated or you facility simple needs refreshing for a new season. But this requires more than rearranging the furniture and driving customers nuts in the process. Without true updating, it simply becomes an exercise that justifies management's existence.
Judging by the red carpet photographs of the recent VMA awards in Rolling Stone, the attendees were dressed like characters in my childhood comic books. Not only are R-rated movies based on comic book super heroes and villains, but ostensible adults now dress like comic characters at public events. It used to be that kids donned their Mikey Mouse ears on the flight home from their vacation. I am having trouble imagining how this trend will translate out of children's bedrooms into adults public spaces. But it is definitely a sign of the times.
As you can see, yesterday's visit to Brimfield and today's WSJ The Magazine from the Wall Street Journal confirm for me the direct influence that art has on commerce. Who could miss how the Rodarte sweater dress channels the Native American spirit of the art dolls created by Cher Shaffer of Creston, NC. Besides the dolls that appear to have influenced Rodarte, her booth of folk art was, without question, the most magical of all that I saw at Brimfield.
WSJ calls this look the Rough Luxe Movement, which " juxtaposes fur, feathers and fine fabrics with utilitarian leather, cashmere and wool." The doll that influences the look is personal, precious, charming - anything but luxe... and therein lies the conundrum of our age.
The "Lampshade Lady" (image on left) uses classic Marimekko and other vintage fabrics and postcards from the distant past when people still sent them to friends and family from their vacation. I wonder whether the greetings sent by way of cell phone photos will have such staying power. This master of remixing teaches her craft in a just-published book: The Lampshade Lady's Guide to Lighting Up Your Life: 50 Custom Lampshades and Lamps and the fresh, though classic, bright colors in her booth made it stand out from all the rest. Find her online at Lake's Lampshades.
The other brightly colored booth (shown on the right) that commanded attention had a hint of deco feel to it, but the bright colors of the frames were strictly contemporary. The reds and purples shown here are fashion-forward for the world of home furnishing, but parallel those of haute couture. The frames add the spice and are the perfect dose of color for the moment. Color is the ultimate "legal" mood enhancer, I see more of it to come.
And then there was the booth of tie-dyed clothing, (in honor of the anniversary of Woodstock - no doubt) I doubt we will be seeing that fashion in the home furnishings arena any time soon. But it was still fun to see.
Yesterday was my first visit back to the Brimfield Antique Shows since the beginning of the current recession. Somehow, it all seemed fresh and reinvigorating to me, maybe it was because I skipped a few years - but now my interest has been rekindled. Forgive me for use of these cliche RE words, but this is a venue where they truly apply. Reuse and recycle truly mean something where everything that is offered has a past. Frank Luntz says in his book Words that Work: "…The so-called “re” words… are incredibly powerful because they take the best elements or ideas from the past and apply them to the present and the future.”
This applies to the wonderful world of Brimfield and the antiques and collectibles that have past lives - from parts of farming machinery that become enormous outdoor sculptures, to vintage fabrics applied to create charming lampshades to tin ceilings made into mirror frames along with the expected antiques that are looking for another home.
I have always looked to Brimfield to supply some of the ingredients that go into the stew that I consider as sources for home furnishing trends. The shelter magazine editors are always there, so expect to see many of the things that they find at Brimfield incorporated into future stories.
Trend-wise, of course antique shows are tradition, but more recent decorative objects, such as the recycled metal sculptures, could also be found. Although a constant throughout the decorative arts, there is a renewed interest in the influences and trade objects of the Silk Road as large selections from Pakistan could be found at various booths. After a decade of neutrals, the bold colors seen in the fall couture could be found here and there and I will address that in a separate post.
After years of creating beige on beige products, I have come to realize that I miss the joy of color. The point to me of creating neutral building materials is that they were merely the canvas or at most a foil to other personal expressions. The color and personality was to be supplied with other materials and art, but somehow the late 90's and 00's were almost devoid of the balance that color could bring to wall board and concrete. Sometimes texture loaded on texture just isn't enough to feed the soul. Color can do that in the most personal way.
Today, I was given quite a jolt of a reminder in Harvard Square. I had been reading that the place that I always had thought of as quaint and interesting was now as interesting as your local mall - nearly devoid of personality. I should have know that the writers lamenting the demise of the square had it right, when I immediately found a parking space. I shed many a tear and got many a parking ticket in the years that I was calling on architects in the Square because parking spaces were so hard to come by.
I had heard that Crate and Barrel which was in the old "Design Research" building was closed but was presently surprised that the owner of the building had used the famous frameless windows wisely and had installed a striking presentation of classic Marimekko fabrics and clothing in all the colorful glory of an era past.
As I trolled the mall yesterday with an eye tuned only to trends, I asked myself if fashion still had any influence on interior finishes or any other building products. I did some homework to track some of the past that influenced today's products, and was surprised at the direct influence of fashion up until this time. The above collage is the trajectory of trends that I uncovered from my own reports of global trade shows and media over the last 4+ years.
Of course everything has changed, the September issues of the fashion magazines are terribly conservative, and I doubt that will take nearly as long to translate to interior finishes as the "metal as color" trend took.
"In the 1950s prizewinning biologist and doctor Jonas Salk was working on a cure for polio in a dark basement laboratory in Pittsburgh. Progress was slow, so to clear his head, Salk traveled to Assisi, Italy, where he spent time in a 13th-century monastery, ambling amid its columns and cloistered courtyards. Suddenly, Salk found himself awash in new insights, including the one that would lead to his successful polio vaccine. Salk was convinced he had drawn his inspiration from the contemplative setting. He came to believe so strongly in architecture’s ability to influence the mind that he teamed up with renowned architect Louis Kahn to build the Salk Institute in La Jolla, Calif., as a scientific facility that would stimulate breakthroughs and encourage creativity."
(This tidbit of information enhances the fascinating narrative on Louis Kahn and images of the Salk Institute in the documentary, My Architect, A Son's Journey.)
An article in the April 2009 Scientific American Mind now available on line: How Room Designs Affect your Work and Mood shares the above information and speaks to how brain research can help us craft spaces that relax, inspire, awaken, comfort and heal. The article gave me insight into why I could not continue to live in a house with low ceilings.
Today's Wall Street Journal mentions that those September 2009 5-pound fashion magazines are diminished in weight and page count anywhere from 20-40% due to the reduction in advertising. I still love to peruse these magazines and noticed that the fashions shown were somewhat more conservative than in the recent previous years.
However, what stood out most for me was the P&G Pro-X ad. A skincare and anti-wrinkle product, that is actually reported to live up to its hype, uses an airbrushed 18 year-old in the ad. The screen capture from their website does not do justice to the full page face of the lovely girl in the magazine who certainly does not need the product. It doesn't exactly give me confidence in the product or make me want to run out and buy it, despite the fact that I am in their demographic. Now I do know that fashion advertising is aspirational and often way out there. But ... we all understand that is just for the fun of it. Cosmetics touted with medicinal jargon fall into another category. What can they possibly be thinking? That the consumer is THAT gullible? Ads for skin-care that "guarantees" younger-looking skin can't have it both ways - both being credible and creating fantasy.
I guess the 2006 "Evolution" ad for Dove Soap by Unilever, despite all the added publicity it garnered, was just a flash in the pan in the advertising world.
The year was 1969, and as we celebrate the 40th anniversary of Woodstock, today's Wall Street Journal covers the event with an editorial: By squalor possessed from their archives. Who, of the Woodstock generation, knew that "life-styles" was already considered a cliche. It is a fun read!
4 minute video has it all - art, architecture, charm, history, even tile. Enjoy!
In a recent article in the NY Times: When Creativity Diminishes Along With the Cash Nicolai Ouroussoff worries that the new diminished plans for the Parrish Art Museum on LI "suggest the possibility of a worrying new development in our time of financial insecurity. It is a creeping conservatism — and aversion to risk — that leaves little room for creative invention." Yes, conservatism and a return to the familiar is no surprise and quite common in insecure economic times. There will always be trends, but the current "trend" is to look back to iconic products that have stood the test of time and do not scream: "I brought this in the 2nd half of 2009" as we saw during the recent boom-boom times. It is simply a fact of life.
Added 8/14: Saw an ad on TV last night (am clueless who it was for) that said - and I am paraphrasing: "We are going from trends to tradition." The perfect sentiment for the times.
I picked up a copy of The Shadow of the Silk Road as soon as it was published, because the idea of the Silk Road has intrigued me since high school history class. The book languished unread for a few years, there always seemed to be more pressing matters. This summer, I finally started reading about this part of the world, so unfamiliar that I kept my laptop turned on by my side so I could google images of the places in Colin Thubron's adventures. My imagination couldn't comprehend the exotic places he was writing about, despite his beautiful descriptions. As a visual person, I spent almost as much time with his hand drawn maps as I did reading, so that now I even know exactly where the Uighur unrest is taking place.
And yes, this does have something to do with interior trends. Following trends is about observing the convergence of ideas. Today, I received my new Garnet Hill catalog and discovered another traveler along the Silk Road - the textile merchant, John Robshaw. I can't believe I previously missed this lovely collection of textiles both made and inspired by the artisans and patterns of the Silk Road of both long ago and today.
Both men stay in "funny old hotels;" while Thubron brought back words, Robshaw brings back textiles and future design inspiration. His historically inspired hand-crafted imperfect textiles speak to those of us that are tired of computer generated perfection just like the Arts and Crafts era was a reaction to the first machine manufactured goods. He may just be the new and more authentic Ralph Lauren for our "less gilded age." Trends point strongly towards "the local" and "Buy American" for interiors, but for those who want more exotic looks, supporting artisans from around the world and helping them build lasting and sustainable craft enterprises is the NEW GLOBAL. This is John Robshaw's inspiration, product source and business model. Both the media and the blogosphere absolutely adore the John Robshaw line, his influence will be felt in finishes as well as textiles - if only in the move towards less perfect, more hand-crafted looks.
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